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J. Anim. Sci. 2006. 84:88-92
© 2006 American Society of Animal Science


ANIMAL GENETICS

Predicting breeding values and accuracies from group in comparison to individual observations

K. M. Olson, D. J. Garrick1 and R. M. Enns

Department of Animal Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80523


    Abstract
 Top
 Abstract
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 IMPLICATIONS
 LITERATURE CITED
 
Individual observations are routinely used in livestock evaluations. In some cases, pooled data representing the joint but not individual performance of a group of animals may be available. For example, pooled feed intake may be measured on a pen of livestock. The usual mixed model approach to genetic evaluation can still be applied as an exact method in this setting, provided incidence and residual variance-covariance matrices are suitably modified to account for the pooling. Approximate evaluations may be achieved by treating average performance as if it pertained to each individual in the pool. Theoretical accuracies can be obtained as a function of elements of the inverse coefficient matrix. A 3-generation data set representing 1,000 animals with feed intake observations from 49 sires and 200 maternal grand sires was simulated with heritability of 0.34. Individual records were pooled to represent circumstances in which animals with records were collectively measured. Animals were allocated into pens at random, by sire, or by maternal grand sire. Simulation was replicated with unique fixed effects for each pen. Following evaluation from each method, the empirical accuracy or product-moment correlation between true (simulated) and estimated merit could be quantified. The analysis of individual observations resulted in empirical accuracy of 0.63 for animals on test and 0.77 for their sires. Pooling the observations in pens of 2, 4, or 12 animals reduced empirical accuracies for animals on test to 0.50, 0.41, and 0.21 when pooling was at random and 0.53, 0.47, and 0.34 when pooling was by sire. Simulating a fixed pen effect representing 10% phenotypic variation, but ignoring that effect in the evaluation minimally reduced empirical accuracies to 0.52, 0.46, and 0.33 when pooling by sire. Theoretical accuracies were in close agreement with empirical accuracies when the exact method was used. The approximate method that treated averages of pooled data as if they were individually observed overstated accuracy and should not be used. Selection on the basis of pooled observations can be almost as effective as using individual observations when pool sizes are small. The exact method to account for pooled data is no more complex than conventional procedures.

Key Words: BLUP • feed intake • pen • genetic evaluation • pooled observation


    INTRODUCTION
 Top
 Abstract
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 IMPLICATIONS
 LITERATURE CITED
 
Response to selection is proportional to the correlation (r) between true genetic merit (u) of candidates and their assessed merit (û) predicted from phenotypic measurements. Collecting additional data typically increases the correlation and response. However, cost-effective improvement schemes are seldom those with greatest response but those that balance gain in relation to costs.

The logical development of an improvement program begins with definition of a goal. Next, the list of traits that influence the goal can be identified, along with their relative importance. This collectively defines the breeding objective. Given a breeding objective, a possible list of characteristics to measure can be identified, and these are known as selection criteria. A businesslike approach to the design of an improvement scheme involves assessment of economic consequences of alternative selection strategies that, among other factors, vary the nature and extent of the selection criteria.

It has often been more cost-effective to exclude characteristics that were expensive to measure (e.g., feed intake), or could only be measured late in life (e.g., longevity) or after slaughter (e.g., carcass attributes). Traits in the breeding objective that relied on such characteristics were either not subject to selection or were assessed from weakly correlated selection criteria.

Collective or pooled observations provide an option between extremes of making no measurement or measuring many individuals. Pooled observations are composed of a measurement that cannot be attributed to a particular individual (e.g., measurement of feed intake on a pen of 2 or more animals, or assessment of a milk characteristic on a pooled herd test sample from 2 or more cows). The analytical approach to such pooled data and the impact of pooling on r has received no attention to our knowledge. This paper presents exact and approximate analytical approaches and assesses both techniques in comparison to using individual measurements.


    MATERIALS AND METHODS
 Top
 Abstract
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 IMPLICATIONS
 LITERATURE CITED
 
Mixed Model Approaches
Alternative methods for analyzing pooled data are shown by comparison to the conventional approach for analysis of direct effects in a mixed model. Suppose the model equation in matrix notation is given by


in which y represents observations on individual animals, b is a vector of unknown fixed effects, X is an incidence matrix whose rows relate each individual observation to their fixed effects in b, u is a vector of random additive effects, Z is an incidence matrix relating each observation to its corresponding genetic effect, and e is a vector of random residual effects. Given E[u] = 0 and E[e] = 0, then as a consequence E[y] = Xb. Assuming var[u] = G, var[e] = R, cov[u,eT] = 0, then var[y] = ZGZT + R and BLUP of u (i.e., û) can be obtained by solving the usual mixed model equations (Henderson, 1975Go, 1984Go):


[1]

Define the partitions in the left hand side of [1] as and elements of its inverse as . The accuracy of prediction of particular elements of u (referred to as r), the correlation between true and estimated merit, can be calculated from the square root of the ratio of the relevant diagonal element of G – C22 over the corresponding diagonal element of G. We refer to the correlations so obtained as measures of theoretical accuracy.

Suppose we measured individual records on a number of animals including one observed in herd 1 and 3 observed in herd 2 with phenotypic observations of 4.90, 7.30, 6.48, and 5.99 kg of feed intake, respectively. In this example,


[2]

with var[u] = G = A{sigma}2u and var[e] = R = I{sigma}e2, in which A is the numerator relationship matrix among animals in u, I is an identity matrix of order equal to the number of observations, and {sigma}2u and {sigma}e2 are genetic and residual variances, respectively.

Suppose the 4 animals were not individually observed, but animals 1 and 2 were in a pen together, as were animals 3 and 4. The observations are now pen sums, and each row of X and Z must reflect the incidence of all individuals in that pen. Vectors y and e and matrices X and Z from [2] can be modified (denoted with subscript p) to reflect pooling by summing together the corresponding rows for the animals making up the pool. Accordingly,


with u (and therefore G) and b as defined previously. Due to the change in nature of eP, var[ep] no longer has elements {sigma}2e but is a diagonal matrix (RP) with elements nj{sigma}e2 where nj represents the number of individual animals that contributed to pooled observation j. Substituting yP, XP, ZP, and RP in [1] in place of y, X, Z, and R and solving the resultant equations will provide BLUP estimates of [u], but these will now have reduced accuracy and increased prediction error covariances in comparison with the situation in which animals were individually observed.

A natural approximation for the analysis of pooled data involves the apportioning of the pen sums equally among each of the individuals constituting the pool and assuming these average observations (denoted by subscript A) were observed. In that case,


with remaining terms as in [2]. The above 3 (individual control, pooled exact, and pooled approximate) methods were compared in the analysis of simulated data.

Simulated Data
A data set of individual animal records for feed intake was simulated for grand progeny of a foundation population of 200 sires and 1,000 dams. The heritability for simulated feed intake was 0.34, the mean 6.48 kg, and phenotypic SD 0.62 kg (Koots et al., 1994aGo,bGo). The breeding values for the foundation sire i (us(i)) and foundation dam (ud(i)) were drawn independently from N(0,{sigma}2u). Sires and dams were mated, and the resulting 1 offspring breeding values were created as in which {phi}i was independently drawn from . A residual effect (ei) for each animal with a record (second generation only) was independently drawn from N(0,{sigma}2e).

Resulting first-generation offspring were mated together to produce a second-generation data set that was used for the analysis containing 200 maternal grandsires (MGS), 49 sires, and 1,000 offspring. The average sire had 20 offspring. The numbers of sires and MGS and their distribution across herds was simulated to reflect a real life bull test (L. L. Leachman, Wellington, CO, personal communication). Second generation offspring represented 18 contemporary groups reflecting different herd origins of the test animals. Herd-origin effects were included as fixed effects in [2] but did not need to be simulated because of the translation invariance of BLUP (Henderson, 1984Go).

Animals with individual records were pooled in pairs and in groups of 4 or 12 animals. The pooled pen observations were obtained by adding the individual records from each animal in the pool. Average pen observations were obtained by dividing the pool sum by the number of animals in the pool.

Pooling was undertaken in 3 ways, at random, by MGS, and by sire. When offspring were pooled by MGS or by sire, some mixed pools had to be created when the number of offspring per MGS or sire was not divisible by the pen size. Pooling by sire is appealing to livestock managers because the pooled observations can be readily attributed to the sire. However, any fixed effects that are confounded with the pen effects would bias the sire effects. In practice, there can be spatial performance trends due to subtle environmental differences between pens. Accordingly, a second simulation was undertaken whereby fixed pen effects were added to pooled records. Pen effects were drawn from a normal distribution with variance representing 10% of the phenotypic variance.

Strictly speaking, the accuracy assessed from the mixed model equations is an apparent or theoretical accuracy. It will only reflect the actual accuracy if the assumed model is correct or very close to the true underlying model. In practice, the model equation is at best a reasonable approximation of the state of nature. Furthermore, the variance components represented in G and R are usually only estimates of true values. Using simulated data, an actual measure of accuracy can be obtained by comparing the true breeding values to the model-dependent estimates of the breeding values. We refer to the product-moment correlation between true simulated and estimated breeding values as the empirical accuracy.


    RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 Top
 Abstract
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 IMPLICATIONS
 LITERATURE CITED
 
The empirical accuracy of predicted breeding values using individual records without pen effects contributing to the observations or being included in the analysis was 0.63 for the individuals with observations in the analysis. Based on a heritability of 0.34, in the absence of fixed effects or pedigree information, the theoretical accuracy is 0.58, the square root of heritability. The slightly higher empirical accuracy represents the benefit of half-sib information contributing to the estimation of individual merit. The theoretical accuracy from the inverse coefficient matrix was 0.63, the same as the empirical accuracy, as would be expected.

In the control analysis with individual observations, the sires of the animals with observations will be more reliably assessed than the offspring themselves. The empirical and theoretical accuracies for estimated breeding values of sires were 0.77 and 0.75. Ignoring fixed effects and relationships, the expected accuracy from a progeny test involving unrelated dams producing n = 20 offspring is , in close agreement with observed values.

Pooling animals in pens reduced the amount of information that could be obtained from each individual observation. Pens of size 2 halve the number of observations. Larger pens further reduce the amount of information. Decreasing the amount of information available as selection criteria reduces the accuracy of evaluation. Accordingly, empirical accuracies for animals with records (Table 1Go) and for sires (Table 2Go) eroded when they were sorted into pens, regardless of the method of pooled analysis. For example, with random allocation of animals to pens, the empirical accuracy for individuals reduced to 0.50 for pens of 2 and 0.41 for pens of 4. Corresponding values were 0.48 and 0.38 for the approximate method. There was little or no practical difference between the empirical accuracies based on exact methodology and the approximate method, although the exact method was fractionally superior.


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Table 1. Empirical accuracies1 of individual animals with observations when they were penned individually or in groups of 2, 4, or 12 animals; allocated at random, according to maternal grand sire (MGS) or sire; in the absence or presence of true pen effects2
 

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Table 2. Empirical accuracies1 of progeny tested sires when offspring were penned individually or in groups of 2, 4, or 12 animals; allocated at random, according to maternal grand sire (MGS) or sire; in the absence or presence of true pen effects2
 
The theoretical accuracies (Table 3Go) were in close agreement with the empirical accuracies for the exact method, eroding with pooling. The theoretical accuracies are identical regardless of pen size when the approximate method was used, as the pooling strategy is not reflected in the coefficient matrix. The approximate method produces theoretical accuracies equal to the values that would pertain if every animal had an actual (not pooled) observation. Accordingly, the theoretical accuracies overstate the realized accuracy of the estimated merit, more so when larger pens are used.


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Table 3. Average theoretical accuracies of individuals with records or their progeny tested sires when offspring were credited with an individual or a pooled record in groups of 2, 4, or 12 animals; allocated at random, according to maternal grand sire (MGS) or sire1
 
In the absence of real pen effects, allocating offspring to pens on the basis of sire was more effective than random allocation in terms of both individual (e.g., 0.53 vs. 0.50) and sire rankings (e.g., 0.77 vs. 0.60 for exact method with pens of size 2). Allocation by MGS was usually intermediate to values obtained by sorting animals into pens at random or by sire.

Pen effects can be included as fixed effects in the analysis when individual observations are collected for each animal in the pen. However, when all offspring in a pen are from the same sire, their records cannot contribute directly to the evaluation of the sire if pen is fitted as a contemporary group. In contrast, when a pen is composed of offspring of more than one sire, and the distributions of offspring are different from pen to pen, pooled records can contribute to the evaluation of sires, even if pen effects are fitted.

The addition of pen effects contributing to variation in observations (at 10% phenotypic variance) had remarkably little influence on empirical accuracies. However, it should be noted that even with pens of 12 animals, the typical sire had offspring in at least 2 pens. Evaluations based on the exact or approximate methods were almost identical, and both provided useful information as to the merit of individuals and their sires when pen effects existed but were ignored in the evaluation.

The methodology presented here applies to multigenerational data with no modification, at least for the usual circumstances with zero residual covariances between animals of different generations. It can be extended to a multivariate setting composed of individual observations for one (or more) trait(s) and a pooled observation for another. However, in that case, R will typically include nonzero residual covariances between the observation on the pooled trait and all the individual observations on the correlated trait(s). Such residual covariance structures can be readily taken into account using the brute force approach of the animal breeder’s toolkit (Golden et al., 1992Go) but may be problematic in other widely used mixed model software.


    IMPLICATIONS
 Top
 Abstract
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 IMPLICATIONS
 LITERATURE CITED
 
Pooled data, such as from collective pen observations, can be effectively used in animal evaluations when individual observations are not available. Pooling reduces accuracy, with greater reduction when larger pools are used. Pooling by sire is more accurate than other methods of pooling in the absence of pool (or pen) effects. Selection based on evaluations from pooled data can be almost as effective as selection using individual observations, particularly when only a few animals are in each pool. Approximate methods that treat pen records as if they were individual observations could be used for evaluation but not to derive accuracy of evaluation. The exact method of accounting for pooled data by modifying the incidence matrices and diagonal elements of the residual variance matrix is not technically demanding to use, and correctly accounts for loss of information from pooling data.

1 Corresponding author: Dorian.Garrick{at}ColoState.edu

Received for publication May 26, 2005. Accepted for publication September 6, 2005.


    LITERATURE CITED
 Top
 Abstract
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 IMPLICATIONS
 LITERATURE CITED
 


Golden, B. L., W. S. Snelling, and C. H. Mallinckrodt. 1992. Animal breeder’s toolkit: User’s guide and reference manual. Colo. State Univ. Agric. Exp. Stn. Tech. Bull. LTB92-2, Fort Collins.

Henderson, C. R. 1975. Best linear unbiased estimation and prediction under a selection model. Biometrics 31:423.[Medline]

Henderson, C. R. 1984. Application of linear models in animal breeding. Univ. Guelph Press, Ontario.

Koots, K. R., J. P. Gibson, C. Smith, and J. W. Wilton. 1994a. Analysis of published genetic parameter estimates for beef production traits. 1. Heritability. Anim. Breed. Abstr. 62:311–338.

Koots, K. R., J. P. Gibson, and J. W. Wilton. 1994b. Analyses of published genetic parameter estimates for beef production traits. 2. Phenotypic and genetic correlations. Anim. Breed. Abstr. 62:826–853.


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