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Projections of the US Cattle Cycle in the 80's¹

Colorado State University², Fort Collins 80523

Abstract

A mathematical model of the United States beef cattle cycle was developed to study the effects of three intensities (Historical, Equilibrium and Bullish) of cow herd parameters, culling rates and replacement rates on cow numbers, grain and forage demands and beef production. The model was a dynamic linear program modeling of the US 10-year cattle cycle. The actual 38.3 million reported beef cows in the US on January 1, 1978, was used as the initial condition of the cycle function cow numbers. Cow numbers in subsequent years were determined by the model with the calf crops being fed to satisfy beef production requirements in an optimal way. Objective function considered was maximum choice-prime beef production. The model output showed that in the historical herd management strategy, cow numbers peaked in year 7 a 28% increase over year 1 cow numbers. Hamburger quality beef supplies decreased 9% between the first and third year, along with a 28% increase in grain (CFU's) demand for cattle on feed and 30% increase in forage demand (cow and support herd fed grass and hay) from cycle valley to peak. Forage requirements, grain demand and cow numbers declined 15% between year 7 and year 10. Cow numbers in the equilibrium strategy peaked in year 10, a 16% increase over year 1 cow numbers. Hamburger quality beef supplies increased 6%, grain demand for cattle on feed increased 0% and forage demand increased 18% from year 1 to year 10. The bullish strategy produced peak cow numbers in year 7, a 35% increase over year 1. Hamburger quality beef supplies decreased 0% between the first year and third year, along with a 40% increase in grain (CFU's) demand for cattle on feed and 27% increase in forage demand from cycle valley to peak. Forage requirements declined 22%, grain demand declined 17% and cow numbers declined 25% between year 7 and year 10.

¹ This research was supported in part by funds from NSR-RANN Grant No. SIA-75-14125.

² Department of Animal Sciences.

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