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The Relation of Population Trends to Commercial Agriculture, Especially to Production of Animal Products

United States Department of Agriculture

Abstract

The prospect of the early approach of a stationary and later probably declining population in the United States and in Northwestern Europe profoundly alters, in my opinion, the long-time outlook for agriculture in the United States. Until recently the farmers have enjoyed a rapidly expanding market for farm products. Prior to the Civil War the population of the Nation, and doubtless its consumption of farm products, increased a third each ten years. After the Civil War the rate of increase lessened, until during the World War decade, and the decade of urban prosperity that followed, the increase of population was less than one-sixth each ten years. But exports to Europe were heavy during much of this period, particularly at the beginning of the century and for a few years following the World War. During the decade we are in, 1930 to 1940, population, almost certainly, will increase not over one-twelfth; and during the decade 1940 to 1950, the increase probably will be not over one-twenty-fourth. About 1950, perhaps before, births appear likely to balance deaths; and, unless the restrictions on immigration are relaxed, the peak of the Nation's population will be reached. For a few years the population may then be expected to remain almost stationary and later decline, for there are not enough children being born in the Nation to maintain its population permanently stationary.