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Summary

Iowa State College

Abstract

We expect mass selection to cause the mean of the population to increase in each generation by an amount equal to the selection differential times the heritability. Some of us think we have seen signs that many populations do not actually change that rapidly. This seems to require an explanation.

First of all, it is possible that the dilemma may be only imaginary. Heritability may not be as high as we think. Selection may not have been as intense as we think. Perhaps the rate of progress actually is substantially as much as it should be. All three of these things need measuring more carefully.

The evidence on heritability seems generally fairly dependable and consistent from various experiments, if we take sampling errors into account and allow for the possibility of some environmental contribution still being in those estimates which are based on likeness between paternal half-sibs. The chief loop-hole seems to be that in these experiments we measure the heritability of a single characteristic.